What's in a poll? Lots of stuff if as they say on TeeVee you go inside the poll and look at the raw numbers. Let's take a look at the raw numbers in a recent poll conducted by Public Policy Institute regarding the upcoming Alabama Gubernatorial Race.
Congressman Artur Davis is leading the Democratic field with 38%, followed by Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks with 28% and Franklin Thomas with 9%.
PPI polled 407 Democratic primary voters (no, they didn't poll me) between March 27 and March 29. 50% of those polled considered themselves conservatives (I wonder why?), 13% considered themselves liberal (yay!) and 37% considered themselves moderates (what the heck is a moderate?)
72% of those polled were white, 24% African American and 4% other. 42% of those polled were between the ages of 46-65.
Based on my analysis of the raw numbers Congressman Davis is barely leading Commissioner Sparks with a 10 point lead and Franklin Thomas Franklin is the decider with 9% of the vote.
There are more Democratic voters with an unfavorable opinion than favorable of Davis because of his vote against health care reform which 80% of democratic voters support. Davis' vote against HCR hurt him. He may be counting on Alabama democrats having a short attention span by trying to distance himself from the vote and distract voters with other issues, but Alabama democratic voters don't suffer from amnesia. We have a memory like an elephant (pun intended).
Davis leads Sparks with African American voters however 24% (AA polled) of 407 (democrats polled) is 97.68. 34% of 98 is 37.24. That ain't a lot of African Americans. Whoever is the winner of the Democratic primary is going to need to garner at least 50% of the African American vote.
I'm just saying.
Congressman Artur Davis is leading the Democratic field with 38%, followed by Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks with 28% and Franklin Thomas with 9%.
PPI polled 407 Democratic primary voters (no, they didn't poll me) between March 27 and March 29. 50% of those polled considered themselves conservatives (I wonder why?), 13% considered themselves liberal (yay!) and 37% considered themselves moderates (what the heck is a moderate?)
72% of those polled were white, 24% African American and 4% other. 42% of those polled were between the ages of 46-65.
Based on my analysis of the raw numbers Congressman Davis is barely leading Commissioner Sparks with a 10 point lead and Franklin Thomas Franklin is the decider with 9% of the vote.
There are more Democratic voters with an unfavorable opinion than favorable of Davis because of his vote against health care reform which 80% of democratic voters support. Davis' vote against HCR hurt him. He may be counting on Alabama democrats having a short attention span by trying to distance himself from the vote and distract voters with other issues, but Alabama democratic voters don't suffer from amnesia. We have a memory like an elephant (pun intended).
Davis leads Sparks with African American voters however 24% (AA polled) of 407 (democrats polled) is 97.68. 34% of 98 is 37.24. That ain't a lot of African Americans. Whoever is the winner of the Democratic primary is going to need to garner at least 50% of the African American vote.
I'm just saying.
2 comments:
Those same polls repeatedly commented our best chance for a Democratic Governor is to pick Sparks.
He is out-polling Davis because so many have a negative view of the frontrunners, on both sides, and the mood of the country and Repugs in AL is throw them all out!
The R Governor Riley is gone through term-limit (or hopefully indictment) so the next best thing to get rid of is the most likely contenders.
The polls actually suggest this in their comments.
It is so sad Davis made these electability choices rather than representing his constituents and his Party.
Do we all have no values?
Exactly yellowdog,
It's a question of integrity. Don't we deserve to have elected officials who have integrity?
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